2026 poll tracker

Large, grade-shaped points are individual poll results, not averages or forecasts. Small green / purple points are source-published averages, not forecasts. Select a point or use the poll menu below each chart. Dates are shared across every chart. Same-date points are offset horizontally for visibility; their actual dates remain in the details.

Shapes show pollster grades from Silver Bulletin, January 2026—not certification of an individual poll. Exact grades and their supplied version appear below. Unrated means no grade supplied, not a bad poll. Excluded means excluded by Silver Bulletin, not banned.

Red = Republican lead; blue = Democratic lead; gray = tie. A dashed ring marks campaign / PAC sponsorship. “Rated only” removes unrated and excluded firms. The campaign / PAC filter removes only campaign/party/PAC internals. A politically affiliated firm or advocacy sponsor is identified separately and is not automatically a campaign internal.

Release date is the default. On the fieldwork-end axis, missing field dates fall back to release date and are counted and labeled. Hispanic-only results never enter the electorate charts. Ballot scenarios remain separate in the details; they are not pooled. No fitted poll trend or error bars: vote-share margins of error do not directly measure uncertainty in a lead.

Publisher averages keep each source’s own values and dates. Pollster-quality and sponsorship filters never recompute or filter them. Average points always use their source as-of date, including on the fieldwork-end axis. Only published daily histories are joined; gaps over two days break the line. These are the publishers’ currently estimated historical trajectories; past values may be revised, not a record of what was published on each date. Sparse observed snapshots are small points only—not a full historical series. Full-electorate averages never appear on subgroup charts. Dashed average lines are cached / outdated, not newly checked values. Unavailable or withheld sources have no plotted series.